Where to Now for HBO Max in NZ?

Warner Bros. Discovery has yet to confirm if the mid-year launch of HBO Max in NZ will go ahead in the wake of Paramount owner Skydance outbidding Netflix to buy the company.

But it seems likely given the roll-out of HBO Max in the UK is unaffected by the deal.

This week Variety exclusively reported HBO Max will still launch in the UK and Ireland as planned.

It quoted sources as saying the service will be up and running on March 26 — despite Paramount Skydance announcing it would merge Paramount+ and HBO Max into a single streaming platform.

Paramount Skydance boss David Ellison told Wall Street analysts HBO will retain some autonomy. Per Variety:

“We do plan for that to be able to operate with independence, so that HBO can, candidly, do what it does incredibly well … But by bringing the platforms together, all of our content will be able to reach even a broader audience than we can do stand-alone.”

As quoted in The Hollywood Reporter:

By uniting our iconic studios’ complimentary streaming platforms with a global footprint, our cable and linear networks, and our world-class IP, we have the opportunity to help shape the future and build a next-generation media and entertainment company. This has been our goal since day one.

This is not about consolidation, it’s about reinventing the business. We want to expand our reach and enhance our ability to create the world’s most compelling stories and experiences. And we’re incredibly excited about this transaction, and it will accelerate that ambition.

Of course, NZ differs from other comparable territories in that Paramount+ doesn’t operate here (nor does sister FAST channel Pluto), and many of the titles that would be exclusive to the service if it did are tied into deals with Sky, which is set to lose HBO content in June, and TVNZ.

In many ways, it’s the worst of all worlds, with signature Paramount+ 4K-UHD shows spread across different channels in HD-only while key series are still not streaming on any of them — most notably the enthralling Jeremy Renner drama, Mayor of Kingstown (which has gone into streaming limbo after the first three seasons streamed on Prime Video but not the fourth or upcoming fifth).

However, given the ambition of Ellison’s vision and the billions being invested on the venture, the millions it would cost to break NZ contracts to achieve his global dominance would be chicken feed.

According to the New York Times, “A combined streaming app would have roughly 200 million subscribers total. That would put Paramount-Warner in the same orbit as Disney’s combined subscription count and reasonably closer to Netflix, which has the highest subscriber figure at more than 325 million.”

An analyst told the NYT that combining streaming services  would “not be a game changer” by itself:

He said the key would be continued investment, which is an unknown given that Paramount would have a debt load of roughly $79 billion … “It does give them a fighting chance … Without Warner Bros., Paramount would be going on this mediocre trajectory for a very long time. With this, it gives them a shot at greatness, some years down the line.”

In the meantime, other reports cite how Paramount Skydance faces “a complicated road of regulatory approvals from governments across the globe”. Per Axios:

Antitrust experts do not expect regulators in the U.S. or abroad to block the deal, but the approval process will likely be long and cumbersome, which could impact how quickly the company can realise synergies and growth opportunities …

Paramount is on a financial time clock. Its merger agreement with WBD includes a “ticking fee” of 25 cents per share, per quarter (or around $650 million per quarter) if the deal does not close by Sept. 30.